Link to paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.04699
Paper published on: 2023-07-11
Paper's authors: Lewis Ho, Joslyn Barnhart, Robert Trager, Yoshua Bengio, Miles Brundage, Allison Carnegie, Rumman Chowdhury, Allan Dafoe, Gillian Hadfield, Margaret Levi, Duncan Snidal
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Summary: The Global Governance of Advanced AI Systems
The research paper we're discussing today brings to light the role of international institutions in ensuring advanced AI systems benefit humanity, while managing the risks they pose. It suggests that international collaborations can unlock AI's potential for sustainable development. However, the paper also highlights the potential dangers of powerful AI systems, necessitating international efforts to manage these risks.
To illustrate, consider a powerful AI system that can predict weather patterns with high accuracy. This system could be a boon for agriculture, disaster management, and even tourism. But in the wrong hands, this system could also be used to manipulate commodity markets or even weaponized for information warfare.
The paper proposes four institutional models for international governance of AI: a Commission on Frontier AI, an Advanced AI Governance Organization, a Frontier AI Collaborative, and an AI Safety Project. Each model has its own challenges, including scientific understanding of risks, politicization, incentivizing participation, and managing dual-use technology.
International Governance Models for Advanced AI
Commission on Frontier AI
The Commission on Frontier AI could facilitate scientific consensus on the challenges and opportunities of advanced AI. Its role would be similar to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), providing a platform for scientists to agree on the state of AI technology and its implications for society. However, the commission would face challenges in avoiding politicization and balancing representation with scientific expertise.
Advanced AI Governance Organization
The Advanced AI Governance Organization would promote norms and standards, provide implementation support, and monitor compliance. This model is akin to the World Health Organization (WHO) but focused on AI. It would face challenges in setting standards quickly and comprehensively, incentivizing participation, and deciding which AI systems should be subject to governance.
Frontier AI Collaborative
The Frontier AI Collaborative would aim to spread beneficial technology and enable legitimate international access to advanced AI. It would acquire or develop AI systems, distribute them to underserved populations, and promote responsible and inclusive AI development. However, this model would face challenges in ensuring that those who gain access to AI can benefit from it and in managing the diffusion of potentially dangerous technologies.
AI Safety Project
The AI Safety Project would accelerate AI safety research by increasing its scale and resources. This model is similar to the Manhattan Project but focused on AI safety. It would face challenges in accessing models and managing security concerns.
The Role of International Institutions in AI Governance
The research paper highlights the need for international efforts to promote global benefits of AI, ensure access to AI technology, harmonize regulation, ensure safe development and use, and manage geopolitical risk factors.
For example, the OECD, GPAI, G7, ITU, and private sector initiatives like the Partnership on AI and ISO/IEC standard-setting initiatives are already making strides in this direction. However, the paper argues that more needs to be done, particularly in managing the risks of accidents and misuse of advanced AI systems.
The Challenges of AI Governance
The research paper points out that national regulation may be ineffective in managing the risks of AI, given its cross-border access and effects. It proposes international efforts to build consensus on risks, set safety norms and standards, and support their implementation.
However, the paper also warns that the significant geopolitical benefits of AI development may disincline states to regulate AI adequately. It suggests that international agreements may be needed to address geopolitical risks and monitor compliance.
The Future of AI Governance
The research paper concludes by emphasizing the need for further attention and analysis on the topic of international institutions for AI governance. It suggests that effective AI governance regimes are necessary to manage global risks from powerful AI systems and that international efforts are needed to help underserved societies access and use advanced AI systems.
In the future, the functions of a Governance Organization and a Frontier AI Collaborative could counteract geopolitical factors exacerbating AI risks. However, the viability of a Frontier AI Collaborative as a means of spreading AI benefits is uncertain due to obstacles in accessing AI and promoting the welfare of underserved communities.
The paper also discusses the possibility of combining institutional functions, such as a Commission on Frontier AI and an AI Safety Project, to enhance their effectiveness. However, this approach would require careful consideration of the challenges and potential conflicts that might arise from such a combination.
This research offers a comprehensive view of the potential models for international governance of AI, their potential benefits, and the challenges they might face. It provides a strong foundation for further discussion and exploration of this crucial topic.
